Poland Office Market Outlook 2026–2027: Rising Rents, Tight Supply

Poland's office market has entered a new maturation phase in 2026–2027. Constrained supply, falling vacancy and rising demand for quality assets are reshaping the landscape. Here's what occupiers and investors need to know.

Key Takeaways

Warsaw's average vacancy rate stood at 9.1% at end-2025, with the Central Business District seeing the sharpest decline of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year.
Prime rents in central Warsaw range from approximately EUR 19 to EUR 27.50 per m² per month, with selected prime locations exceeding EUR 30 per m² per month.
Poland's office stock is expected to expand by just under 170,000 m² in 2026, well below historical averages.
Regional cities saw take-up reach 770,000 m² in 2025 against record-low new supply of just 20,000 m².
Poland's office market is entering a clearly dual structure, with prime assets strengthening landlord negotiating positions while older buildings face modernisation pressure.
Strong GDP growth and improving economic sentiment are shaping 2026, with tenant decisions focused on securing top locations.
A polarised market is forcing strategic site selection: central premium zones versus non-central alternatives with better cost efficiency.

Rents and Vacancy

Prime office rents in central Warsaw's best buildings hold at EUR 19–27.50 per m² per month; non-central zones offer compelling alternatives from EUR 10 per m² per month. Vacancy continues to tighten:

Warsaw's vacancy rate: 9.1% at end-2025 (down 1.5 pp year-on-year), but central areas report 6.1% and non-central zones 11.6%.
Regional cities average 16.9% vacancy (down 0.9 pp year-on-year); Kraków stands at 18.4%, with prime central locations at only 9.8%.
New supply remains scarce; older office buildings face growing pressure to modernise or convert to alternative uses.

The Central Business District recorded the most pronounced vacancy decline, confirming strong occupier demand for prime office locations. Cost-conscious tenants are increasingly seeking non-central zones that offer competitive pricing without sacrificing quality.

Take-Up and Demand

2025 confirmed strong recovery in Warsaw, with total take-up of 790,000 m² and Q4 achieving a record 310,000 m² in signed leases. Momentum continues but is selective:

Regional cities recorded 770,000 m² take-up in 2025 despite record-low 20,000 m² new supply.
Take-up in Q4 2025 was dominated by lease renegotiations, reflecting mature market dynamics.
Companies increasingly focus on office efficiency and seek higher-standard buildings, reflecting a broader trend of modernising office stock.
Local market players are stepping up construction, with smaller developer projects becoming the norm.

The shift from new leases to renegotiations signals a market where tenants leverage tight supply to secure better terms or strategic locations in prime zones.

Supply and Development Pipeline

Poland's office stock is expected to expand by just under 170,000 m² in 2026, continuing a multi-year slowdown. Pipeline constraints are severe:

Warsaw's pipeline: approximately 189,000 m² under construction, down 23% year-on-year.
Nearly 60% of pipeline space is due after 2026, creating supply scarcity in the near term.
Regional cities have 240,000 m² under construction (primarily Poznań and Kraków), with just 8,000–12,000 m² major projects completed in 2025.
Construction downturn is expected to continue until end-2026 in Warsaw and several quarters longer in regional cities.
Limited land availability in city centres will force renovation or demolition of existing buildings to make way for new office developments.

Constrained modern supply will support continued lease renegotiations and selective rental increases in best-performing assets. Developers remain cautious; high financing costs and weak investor appetite persist outside prime central locations.

Investment Activity

Investment transaction volume in Poland grew 82% year-on-year in Q1 2026, reaching EUR 83 million. However, capital flows remain selective:

Landlords of prime assets are strengthening their negotiating position while financing for older properties and high-vacancy buildings remains conservative.
Investment is experiencing gradual upswing, shifting focus toward income generation and requiring more strategic, asset-specific approaches; demand remains consistently high with vacancy rates trending downward.
Institutional capital increasingly targets refurbished or newly completed Class A buildings in central prime zones; older stock faces conversion pressure to residential or alternative uses.

Warsaw Market in Focus

Poland's largest markets—Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tricity, Katowice, Poznań, Łódź, Lublin, and Szczecin—held combined office stock of 13.04 million m² at end-Q1 2026. Warsaw remains the investment and leasing epicentre:

Vacancy: 9.1% overall; CBD saw the steepest decline of 3.9 pp year-on-year.
The market is becoming increasingly polarised, with central and non-central zones governed by different supply and demand dynamics.
Rising rents in central projects are prompting companies to reassess location strategies and consider well-connected non-central locations offering high-quality space at more predictable cost levels.
The market entered 2026 with a shortage of modern space; although 40,000 m² of new and modernised offices entered in Q1 2026, a near-complete slowdown in new supply will further fuel rent rises.

Kraków, Wrocław and Tri-City: Regional Drivers

Kraków's office stock totals 1.85 million m², representing approximately 14% of Poland's total office space. Regional markets present distinct opportunities:

Kraków

Asking rents in modern office buildings remain stable at EUR 10–18 per m²/month; in prestigious projects rates exceed this range.
Approximately 50,000 m² is under construction; the largest project, Tischnera Green Park (24,000 m²), is scheduled for completion by end-2027.
Low developer activity will support market stabilisation and gradual reduction in modern space availability.

Wrocław and Tri-City

Wrocław holds 1.36 million m² and the Tri-City 1.07 million m², forming the second and third largest regional office markets.
Vacancy at end-Q1 2026: 17.4% regionally; Wrocław at 22%, Szczecin at 7.9%.
Competition among buildings drives greater tenant flexibility; prime locations and projects offering high quality and competitive operating costs attract concentrated demand.

IT, business services and manufacturing remain the most active take-up sectors, driven by nearshoring and digital transformation.

Demand Drivers: Employment, Nearshoring and Economic Outlook

Poland's economy grew 3.6% in 2025 and is projected to reach 3.7% in 2026, supporting stable employment and corporate expansion.
Cities in Central and Eastern Europe, including Warsaw, are well-positioned to leverage AI to increase productivity.
Although AI adoption remains low across Polish enterprises, construction and non-IT sectors face pressure to modernise, creating demand for flexible, high-quality office space.
Leasing activity in regional cities reached 770,000 m² in 2025 (+8% year-on-year), driven by multinational corporate relocations and nearshoring.
Tech talent concentration in Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław continues to fuel office demand. Service sector growth and shared services expansion underpin demand in secondary cities.

Key Risks and Headwinds

Geopolitical uncertainty and potential financing cost pressures could slow corporate expansion and extend developer caution.
Post-pandemic hybrid work trends remain a structural headwind; demand for large open-plan floors has not fully returned.
Older buildings face obsolescence risk; conversion to residential or alternative uses will reduce net office supply further.
Regional markets exhibit higher vacancy; demand outside major cities remains sensitive to cost and quality trade-offs.

FAQ

Will office rents continue to rise in Poland in 2026–2027?

Limited modern supply and falling vacancy are likely to support selective rental increases in best-performing assets, particularly in central prime locations. However, non-central zones with quality buildings will offer more stable, moderate rental growth as tenants seek cost efficiency.

Is it a good time to invest in Polish office assets?

The investment market is entering a gradual upswing; institutional capital is increasingly focused on income generation and strategic, asset-specific acquisitions in prime zones with strong fundamentals and low vacancy. Class A buildings in Warsaw's CBD and major regional city centres are particularly attractive; older stock requires value-add repositioning.

Which cities offer the strongest office leasing opportunities for international occupiers?

IT, business services and manufacturing sectors are the most active takers. Warsaw remains dominant for multinationals; Kraków and Wrocław are emerging hubs for tech and shared services. Tri-City offers niche opportunities in IT and R&D roles.

What is the outlook for office supply in 2027?

Supply is expected to remain constrained, with under 170,000 m² anticipated in 2026 and limited growth visible for 2027. Nearly 60% of the pipeline will complete after 2026, meaning supply scarcity will persist through 2027.

Methodology & Definitions

Data in this article is sourced from Q1 2026 MarketBeat reports by Cushman & Wakefield, February 2026 regional and Warsaw office market reports by AXI IMMO, Colliers Q1 2026 office market analysis, and CBRE's 2026 Poland Real Estate Market Outlook. Prime rents refer to asking rates in best-performing buildings in central prime zones; average rents reflect broader market conditions. Vacancy rates represent percentage of leasable office space unlet at period-end. Take-up measures gross office space leased, including new leases, renewals and renegotiations. Pipeline denotes modern office space under construction or with planning approval. All figures in EUR per m² per month and m² (never sq ft) unless otherwise noted.

Ready to Find Your Office?

Poland's office market rewards early movers and strategic site selection. Whether you are a tenant seeking prime space in Warsaw, Kraków or beyond, or an investor evaluating Class A opportunities, the current environment—marked by tight supply and rising rents in quality assets—requires decisive action. Explore available office space and connect with market specialists on our platform today.

Sources

Cushman & Wakefield Poland MarketBeat Q1 2026, CBRE 2026 Poland Real Estate Market Outlook, AXI IMMO Warsaw Office Market 2025 & 2026 Forecast, AXI IMMO Poland Regional Office Markets 2025 Report, Colliers Poland Office Market Q1 2026, EurobuildCEE Poland regional and Warsaw office market analysis.